If there is no deal, the UK will trade with the bloc under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules from 1 January, meaning all imports and exports will be subject to border controls, quotas and tariffs. The UK in a changing Europe „Trade on WTO terms, what does it mean?“ Retrieved 24 November 2020. However, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democratic Majority Leader in Congress) said the House of Representatives would refuse to ratify a US-UK free trade agreement if the stability of the Good Friday deal was threatened. [115] Economists at the think tank The Policy Exchange criticized the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the IMF, and the OECD for their reliance on a gravitational model with what they thought were erroneous assumptions. [22] These forecasts were based in particular on the comparison between the average increase in trade between EU countries and the average increase in trade between EU countries and the rest of the world. For example, forecasts by the Ministry of Finance showed that trade in goods between EU countries increased by 115% compared to trade between the EU and the rest of the world during the EU calendar. The authors highlighted various problems, including the fact that 115% was the average in all EU countries and that the UK`s specific analysis leads to a significantly lower figure in the range of 20% to 30%, that currency fluctuations should have reduced some of the impact, and that UK exports to the EU as a percentage of their total exports have declined rapidly since 1999. Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove lowered expectations, saying the likelihood of a deal was „less than 50%“ as the government prepares the Royal Navy to patrol British fishing waters in the event of a no-deal. With a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to strike a trade deal between the UK and the EU. The UK`s costs under WTO rules will go beyond trade with the EU, as Brexit will end the UK. Trade rights under EU agreements with 72 other countries. The United Kingdom reported that it had concluded new agreements with only 12 countries. In fact, he will lose not only a deal, but dozens.

It could also struggle to recover them, as external trading partners have to assess the impact of Brexit on their relationships, product sourcing and international locations for operations and financing, which could affect the terms of these new agreements. Thus, when an agreement is reached, the shares can increase. However, due to the significant negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the UK and the global economy, the short-term effects of a no-deal Brexit could be difficult to disentangle from the effects of the pandemic. One of the outstanding issues is the allocation of UK fishing rights in the North Sea to EU countries. Although fishing is only a small part of the EU economy, this issue is of political importance in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany and especially in France. The extent of public subsidies allowed for companies for which the UK has sought wide room for manoeuvre is also not resolved. For a time, the prospect of a deal was seriously threatened when the Prime Minister accused Parliament of a proposal to disregard the Irish protocol. The British proposal would include a border between the territories of Ireland. In the face of strong opposition from EU members, and in particular the United States, whose politicians have threatened that a violation of Irish protocol would ban any UNITED States and the United Kingdom. .